Publication date

30 Apr 2026

To capture the scale of Europe and Canada’s reliance on satellite communications and their positive contributions, London Economics’ study estimates the cost of satcom’s absence. The study applies a hypothetical scenario wherein satellite communications are disrupted over seven days during an average week of the year. In this scenario, satellite communications are inhibited across all orbits – with no identified cause – leading to an immediate and global loss of satcom while other space-based services remain operational. The total monetised impacts from this hypothetical loss of satellite communications were estimated at up to €20 billion over the seven-day period.

The London Economics study maps the use of satellite communications across the maritime, aviation, consumer, energy and payment sectors, as well as their related use cases, taking into consideration their dependence on satcom versus terrestrial alternatives. To do so, London Economics undertook 48 stakeholder consultations with customers and end-users of satellite communications, as well as satellite operators and connectivity providers, national regulators, expert stakeholders, financial institutions and academics. The estimate yielded by this study focuses on the economic and social costs of a disruption, quantifying the number of households and businesses affected through:

This study illustrates the importance of sustaining resilient satellite communications that support the economic growth and maintenance of social norms across Europe and Canada.

KEY FINDINGS

The result of this study estimates the total monetised impacts from loss of satellite communications in a bracket ranging from €10.2 billion up to as high as €20 billion, as suggested by a sensitivity analysis. In particular, the maritime sector accounts for more than 90% of losses – as high as €19 billion. These findings represent a snapshot of losses based on the current usage of satellite communications in Europe and Canada – a figure that is expected to grow in the medium term as new technologies make their way to market, driving adoption of space-based communications. The socio-economic benefits principally affected by this loss are considered to be (click on the tabs below to cycle through entries):

THE RESULTS – AVIATION

The estimated impact for aviation ranges from a €307.6 million to €558.7 million, with loss of satellite communications impacting ESA Member States and Canadian airlines and Air Traffic Management and operations control centres. Within the seven-day timeframe of the study’s scenario, no less than 4,000 transatlantic flights are delayed or cancelled. The delays cost airlines €69.2 million, with 1,800 aircraft hours of cascading delays at major hubs valued at €63.8 million. European and Canadian passengers lose a collective 2.2 million hours at a cost of €58.4 million. In addition, the delays incur an environmental impact – with 200,000 tonnes of CO₂ emitted at a cost of €44.1 million.

THE RESULTS – CONSUMER

The estimated cost to consumer activities ranges from €262.8 million to €352.7 million, with 2.2 million citizens in ESA Member States and Canada losing their connectivity. The disruption of satellite communications has broad social consequences: users in remote and mountainous regions lacking coverage suffer the greatest impact, becoming completely cut-off. Digital isolation and reduced access to online education, remote work and healthcare delays are also compounded by the absence of satellite communications. Satellite-enabled emergency messaging in particular is estimated to reach a cost of €4.5 million in societal impact due to disrupted emergency responses.

THE RESULTS – ENERGY

Estimated loss for the energy sector ranges from €73.9 million to €89.8 million. Offshore rigs in particular are impacted – pausing operations to the cost of €70.7 million, with standby costs incurred by stack warming reaching €3.1 million. Furthermore, the lack of terrestrial coverage and of alternative infrastructure affect the connectivity for 1,860 offshore crew, with consequences on welfare and mental health.

THE RESULTS – PAYMENTS

Although no monetisable impact was found for the payment infrastructure in ESA Member States and Canada, the consequences of a satellite communications disruptions are nevertheless tangible. ATM and Point of Sale (POS) machines in isolated communities with no terrestrial connectivity lose functionality. Additionally, Canada’s community aggregator model is found fully dependant on satellite operations. In contrast to other sectors however, strong contingency plans exist for payment infrastructure to mitigate loss of communication, enabling operations within seven days even if POS and ATMs become fully reliant on satellite communications in the future.

LIMITATIONS AND NEXT STEPS

The overall monetised impacts estimated by the study are expected to be higher than the brackets illustrated above. Indeed, multiple known users of satellite communications were excluded from the scope of this study – including media, government and defence. Moreover, monetised impacts do not account for financial transfers within Member States and can result in monetised impacts appearing lower than expected in this report.

Future research should explore the role of satellite communications as a back-up to terrestrial communication infrastructure, additional and emerging use cases, as well as evolving dependencies. This information will be invaluable to better inform resilience planning, investment decisions, and policy development.

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